https://blog.jbledger.com/categories/craft/Recent content in Craft on The Public LedgerHugoen-usSat, 12 Sep 2026 12:30:00 +0000https://blog.jbledger.com/posts/an-honest-backtest-projecting-a-fiscal-year-end-two-ways/Sat, 12 Sep 2026 12:30:00 +0000https://blog.jbledger.com/posts/an-honest-backtest-projecting-a-fiscal-year-end-two-ways/Linear continuation vs. damped Holt-Winters, walked forward over 36 held-out periods. The winner’s margin is thin enough that a library convention flips it — so the page shows both methods and says so out loud.